Sundays and a hand

Nothing of note this Sunday except another close call in a $22 freezeout. Ended up getting 14th after losing AA to AJo all in preflop for 2nd or 3rd in chips :/

Got a request to look at a call I made in a little private tourney. Blinds were 200/400/25 and the BB was sitting out. Folded to the CO who shoved 2265 and I called K9o on the button. I had 11k and the sb had 8k. So first let's ignore the sb for simplicity and then add him back in later. Table was 8 handed so pot is 200+400+8*25=800. I'm calling 2265 to win 3065 so I need 42.5% equity for calling to be good.

In pretty much the worst case scenario, his range will be something like only better hands: any pair, any ace, KT+. Against that I have 36% equity and calling is definitely bad. So how wide does he have to be? Wider than I would've thought actually; after doing some pokerstoving, it looks like any broadway, any suited Kx and most suited connectors, 1 gappers and 2 gappers or about 33% of hands. With the big blind sitting out I'd expect a lot of people to shove significantly wider than that (a lot of people would shove any 2 there).

Now what about the sb? I think a reasonable range for him to shove is something like 66+, ATs+, AJo+, maybe KQs. Some will be wider, some tighter. That's 8.3% of hands, so if I'm folding to a shove (I was) then that costs me .083*2265=188 chips. So now to break even I need 46% equity, which works out to him shoving close to 50% of hands. So vs some this call is definitely a mistake, vs others (who are shoving close to any 2) it's a very clear call. I was playing a bunch of tables and had no reads so I'd make the call again but it's much closer than I thought.

On that note, if you ever see me play hands you'd like to hear explanations of (or if you just want my thoughts on a random hand) feel free to ask about them in the comments section. I used to be pretty good about working on getting better but I've been slacking a bit recently and stuff like the above definitely helps.

Steve